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Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category
January 10th, 2012
A Surfers Bible
October 10th, 2011
Hurricane Jova To Become Category 4 Off Of Baja Mexico
Monday, October 10, 2011 8:05 AM MDT Category 3 Major Hurricane Jova continues to strengthen and is forecast possibly even become a Category 4 Hurricane before making landfall late Tuesday on the southwest coast of mainland Mexico. Hurricane Jova is currently about 255 miles SW of Manzanillo, or about 500 miles SSE of Cabo San Lucas.
Other than heavy surf along south facing beaches Jova is not likely to significantly affect Baja weather at this time.
Hurricane Jova is currently located near 16.3N 107.0W and is moving 85° at 4kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 960Mb and winds are 105kts with gusts to 130kts, making Jova a Category 3 Hurricane. Jova is another small storm, like last month’s Hurricane Hilary. Hurricane force winds extend out 15 miles, tropical storm force winds extend out as much as 80 miles and 12ft seas extend out as much as 300 miles.
Hurricane Jova is forecast to continually move over warmer waters as it approaches the mainland will thusly continue to strengthen right up until the time of landfall. Current forecasts call for a Category 3 landfall somewhere near Barra de Navidad on the Mexican mainland sometime Tuesday evening.
The Pacific coast of Mexico has so far this season been spared landfall of a hurricane. Jova stands to make amends for that oversight and will plow into the southwest coast of Mexico sometime Tuesday night. Should Jova make landfall as a Major Hurricane wide spread destruction can be anticipated along the coast from storm surge to 15′. Wide spread flooding and extensive wind damage will occur. In short, this will be a major natural disaster. Orders to evacuate should be observed.
Jova will be the 5th Major Hurricane of 2011. Normally the Eastern Pacific spawns 3.2 Major Hurricanes per year.
September 25th, 2011
Hurricane Hilary Category 4 Off Of Baja
Hurricane Hilary
AT12PM MDT FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER…
HILARY REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD…
Sunday, September 25, 2011 11:31 AM MDT Hurricane Hilary Appears to have passed its peak overnight and continues to weaken slowly, but remains a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane. Hurricane Hilary is currently about 400 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas.
Hurricane Hilary is currently near 17.2N 109.2W and is moving 275° at 08kts. Central barometric pressure is 953Mb and winds are 110kts to 135kts, making Hurricane Hilary a Category 3 Hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out only 30 miles and Tropical Storm force winds extend out 60 miles in the NE quadrant. Twelve foot seas extend out as much as 150 miles. Hilary is a strong but relatively small system.
Hurricane Hilary will begin to move over increasingly cooler waters through the day today but is forecast to remain a dangerous Major Hurricane through Tuesday. On Wednesday Hilary is forecast to depreciate to a Category 2 Hurricane and begin a turn to the north. By late Tuesday or early Wednesday Hilary will cross the 26°C thermo cline and begin to dissipate rapidly.
In the 10 day forecast it appears that Hilary will dissipate to the west of the Baja peninsula through late next week and as the storm breaks up the remains may provide some rain and cloud cover to the central and northern portions of the peninsula.
Hillary will provide large short period surf to south and southwest facing beaches as it passes south of Cabo beginning late Saturday. Waves will create dangerous swimming conditions and because of the short period, not be much of a gift to surfers.
Hurricane Hilary is a powerful but small storm. Passing nearly 400 miles south of the tip of the peninsula it is likely surf will be the only evidence of Hilary in Baja Sur. Some clouds and the increased chance of afternoon thunderstorms may occur due to the humidity that Hilary will drag along with her. But with tropical storm force winds (>35kts) only extending out 60 miles even the Socorro Islands (The most hurricane struck land mass on earth) may not suffer badly from the passing of Hilary.
The air mass over the southern peninsula remains relatively dry, along with winds and overnight lows our Baja weather still does not appear ripe for a tropical cyclone landfall. Here in La Paz we have not even had a local thunderstorm in weeks.
Hurricane Hilary is going to redistribute a great deal of energy from the Eastern Pacific. With just one tropical wave in the pipeline of the ITCZ about 7 days away from our basin and about 15 – 20 days left in our hurricane season this could mean the Baja will escape 2011 without a credible hurricane threat.
Below is an animated graphic showing the evolution of the computer generated storm tracks.
We always advise against looking at individual models, as the consensus model issued by the NHC and adapted for the Insider ( top right) is constructed with human judgment, knowing the strengths and weaknesses of each forecast model.
The below computer models are an excellent example of why NOT to look at individual models. Compare the accuracy of the consensus track model upper right with the wild wanderings of the individual models shown below.
September 4th, 2011
Hurricane Katia Now A Category 2 – Wave Forecast Quiksilver Pro
Hurricane Katia
Katia has regained hurricane status once again and is now a category 2. As of Sunday, Hurricane Katia was located to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles and was moving off to the northwest.
Katia has been battling wind shear over the last couple of days and has been flipping between minimal hurricane and strong tropical storm strength. The long-term forecast calls for continued strengthening. It is still too early to determine if any land areas, including the U.S. East Coast, will be directly affected by this system.
Much of the uncertainty in the track forecast is associated with an upper-level trough, partially associated with Lee, over the eastern states later in the week. The exact orientation and position of this trough will play a role in the steering for Katia.
Residents along the East Coast should monitor this situation closely.
MONDAY 5th
SWELL/SURF: 2-3′+ SSW windswell and SE Katia swell. Potential for bigger SE swell sets in the chest+ range to show during the second half of the day as a little more swell fills in.
WIND/WEATHER: S/SSW 8-13kts increasing to 12-16kts as a frontal boundary approaches. Chance of rain/thunderstorms.
TUESDAY 6th
SWELL/SURF: Stronger 3-4′+ (waist-chest/shoulder high) SE Katia swell and fading SSW windswell mix.
WIND/WEATHER: Depending on exact position of frontal boundary – S 10-15kts ahead of front; N/NNW winds around 8-13kts behind the front. This will depend on interaction between TS Lee and the frontal boundary – we will watch closely the next couple of days.
WEDNESDAY 7th
SWELL/SURF: 5-7′ (head high – overhead) SE Katia swell. There is potential for a bit more size towards the later PM hours as Katia swell continues to fill in further. This will be dependent on the progress of Katia over the next few days.
WIND/WEATHER: Possible increase in side/offshore ENE winds. Wind strength dependent on possible interaction between lingering front and approaching Katia. Lingering cloudiness from the old frontal boundary.
THURSDAY 8th
SWELL/SURF: 6-8′+ (overhead-few feet overhead) SE Katia swell. Possible sets pushing the double overhead range. This will be dependent on the track/strength of Katia over the next few days.
WIND/WEATHER: Gusty E possibly becoming ENE winds. Wind outlook low confidence and dependent upon interaction between lingering front and approaching Katia.
August 30th, 2011
Hurricane Katia Category 3 Begins To Form In The Atlantic
Checking out the weather maps it is confirmed that tropical storm Katia will become a category 1 hurricane by Thursday September 1, 2011 and a category 3 by September 4, 2011. This is great news for the Quiksilver Pro WCT surfing contest that is in Long Beach New York for there two week surf and music festival.
August 25th, 2011
Hurricane Irene Is Now A Category 3 And Will Become A Category 4
The Vans contest that is currently going in Virgina Beach is on fast forward as we have been told they will be wrapping this contest up tomorrow due to Hurricane Irene which is now a category 3 and will become a category 4 by tomorrow.
Dale Eck, Director of Global Forecast Center, The Weather Channel
Aug 25, 2011 8:54 am ET
HURRICANE IRENE
- Irene will have significant effects on the Bahamas and eastern North Carolina to the Northeast
- Irene is a major category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph moving through the Northwest Bahamas.
- Irene is centered about 670 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and moving NW at 13 mph.
- The central and northwest Bahamas continue to be under a hurricane warning,and the hurricane warnings have been discontinue for the southeast Bahams.
- A hurricane watch is now in effect along the North Carolina coast from Surf City to the Virginia border.
- A tropical storm watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.
- Irene moves northwest through the Bahamas through tonight.
- Peak wind gusts so far: George Town 69 mph and Nassau 62 mph.
- Rainfall of 6 to 10 inches is expected throughout the Bahamas.
- A dangerous storm surge could raise water levels by 7 to 11 feet in the northwest Bahamas in areas with onshore winds.
- Outer rain bands from Irene reach eastern Florida today and tonight.
- Heavy showers may contain wind gusts over 40 mph along with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.
- After moving out of the Bahamas tonight Irene parallels the Southeast coast well offshore Friday.
- Rain bands occasional lash the coastline from central Florida to North Carolina.
- Some bands may contain tropical storm force wind gusts.
- Irene is forecast to weaken slightly as it approaches the North Carolina coast Saturday.
- It could still be a major hurricane causing extreme impacts to eastern North Carolina later Friday night and Saturday.
- Winds over 100 mph, torrential rainfall, ocean and sound flooding and a damaging storm surge are expected on the Outer Banks and western shores of the sounds.
- Hurricane force winds could be felt over the mainland almost to I-95.
- Heavy rainfall is possible as far west as central North Carolina and north-central South Carolina through Saturday afternoon.
- There has been a slight shift in the forecast beyond Saturday.
- It now appears Irene may hug the coastline potentially making a landfall not too far east of New York City Sunday evening.
- This new track means more people could have catastrophic impacts from Irene in the Northeast beginning Saturday night in southern Virginia and lasting into Monday in New England.
- Even though Irene should weaken some it will still bring hurricane force winds, extreme rainfall, significant coastal flooding and a tornado threat.
- Irene should be hitting the Northeast near the new moon when tides will be higher before adding Irene’s surge and wave action.
- Heavy rain could track as far west as western Virginia, western Maryland, central Pennsylvania and central and western New York.
- Widespread wind damage and power outages are likely throughout the Northeast.
August 22nd, 2011
Hurricane Irene Is Coming To America – First Hurricane In The Atlantic For 2011
Hurricane Irene became the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season early Monday morning as it moved offshore of Puerto Rico.
Hurricane Irene is now forecast to become stronger over the next 5 days, since its center is expected to track over less land in the Caribbean, tracking toward Florida and the Southeast U.S. Thursday into the weekend.
Irene has already produced widespread tree and power line damage across Puerto Rico.
July 21st, 2011
Category 4 Hurricane Dora Coming To The West Coast
AT 06PM MDT FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER…
DORA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE…
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.”
July 20, 2011 9:43 PM Hurricane Dora is a Category 4 Hurricane well off the southern coast of mainland Mexico. Hurricane Dora is about 220 miles SSW of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico or about 558 miles southeast by south of Cabo San Lucas.
Tropical Storm Dora is located near 16.0N 105.4W and is moving 295° at 14kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 948Mb and winds are 115kts with gusts to 140kts. Eye diameter is 25 miles and hurricane force winds extend out 35 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend out as much as 130 miles in the NE quadrant. Hurricane Dora is now a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane. Forecasts call for Dora to continue to strengthen through tomorrow, peaking tomorrow morning as a Category 4 storm with winds in excess of 125kts.
Hurricane Dora is expected to continue to strengthen for the next 24hrs as the storm moves over very warm waters with optimal environmental conditions for development.
Hurricane Dora is forecast to move well to the southwest of the tip of the Baja peninsula. Dora is expected to have passed peak intensity as it moves very close to the Socorro Islands Friday morning. The NHC graphic shows Dora as a Major Hurricane on Friday morning where the forecast calls for Dora to have weakened to a Category 2 Hurricane and be about 225 miles south of Cabo San Lucas. For the next 24hrs Dora will skirt WNW and remain about the same distance away from the peninsula.
At the closest approach Dora will be more than 200 miles away from the closest point on the peninsula, according to the current forecast. Should this hold true even Cabo San Lucas will be more than 80 miles outside the tropical storm force conditions.
The span of Dora is large and it is possible that the southern most portions of the peninsula will see some rain from the system as it passes. More likely is that more northern portions of the peninsula will see increased clouds and the threat of rain as the storm dissipates well west of Baja.
Hurricane Dora strengthened rapidly on the afternoon of 7/20 and became a Category 4 Hurricane in the 6PM MDT interim release. Hurricane Dora was upgraded to Major Hurricane Status at Category 3 on the afternoon of July 20. Dora became a Category 1 Hurricane on the evening of July 19. Tropical Depression 4E formed off the coast of Guatemala on the morning of July 18, 2011 and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dora mid day. Dora is the second Major Hurricane (one of Category 3 or greater) of 2011 and the fourth consecutive hurricane of 2011.
For more on the potential landfall of Hurricane Dora please see the latest release of the Hurricane Watch Report.
