Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category

November 29th, 2012

KUSI San Diego Surf Report

This morning on tv

Cory Lopez going right at Teahupoo

We wish the news was right about the surf more often then not

We promise we watch the weather for the surf report and not the for the hot news anchor

October 28th, 2012

Hurricane Sandy

Video here

September 24th, 2012

Miriam Now A Category 3 Hurricane

Hurricane Miriam has become the fourth Major Hurricane of the 2012 Eastern pacific Hurricane Season achieving Category 3 intensity this morning with winds topping 120mph. Of more concern to Baja is the continued curve of the projected track of the storm. Current forecast tracks have the system making landfall near San Ignacio on the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur next weekend. Forecasts call for Miriam to be of tropical storm intensity at that time. Hurricane Miriam os about 410 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

September 24th, 2012

Hurricane Miriam

Current forecasts call for this system to become a hurricane as early as tonight and slowly turn from WNW to NW and move harmlessly off into the Pacific. Surfline is claiming we will get surf from this Wednesday morning.

September 13th, 2012

Tropical Cyclone Kristy Coming To Hurley Pro

Wednesday, September 12, 2012 3:51 PM MDT Tropical Depression 11E has spawned Tropical Storm Kristy off the southern coast of Mexico about 170 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corientes on the mainland or about 380 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas. The system is forecast to remain a tropical storm through Friday. On Friday the storm is forecast to cross the 26°C thermo line and will begin to dissiapte.

Tropical Storm Kristy is located near 18.2N 106.9W and is moving 305° at 10kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 1005Mb and winds are 40kts with gusts to 50kts, making the system of mild tropical storm intensity. Forecasts call for TS Kristy to strengthen slowly and very little over the next 36hrs, remaining a tropical storm through Friday as it moves well southwest of the Baja peninsula. Early forecasts call for then TS Kristy to pose little threat to the Baja peninsula. Current tracks place the closest approach of the storm to Cabo San Lucas as about 200 miles on Friday morning. It is possible that the southern most extremes of the peninsula may see some spin-off rain from the system as it passes. Heightened surf of short period will occur along south and southwest facing beaches.

July 16th, 2012

Hurricane Fabio Coming Towards California

We should be getting some big waves beginning tomorrow here in So Cal thanks to Hurricane Fabio which is currently a category 1

January 10th, 2012

A Surfers Bible

Our daily word

October 10th, 2011

Hurricane Jova To Become Category 4 Off Of Baja Mexico

Monday, October 10, 2011 8:05 AM MDT Category 3 Major Hurricane Jova continues to strengthen and is forecast possibly even become a Category 4 Hurricane before making landfall late Tuesday on the southwest coast of mainland Mexico. Hurricane Jova is currently about 255 miles SW of Manzanillo, or about 500 miles SSE of Cabo San Lucas.

Other than heavy surf along south facing beaches Jova is not likely to significantly affect Baja weather at this time.

Hurricane Jova is currently located near 16.3N 107.0W and is moving 85° at 4kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 960Mb and winds are 105kts with gusts to 130kts, making Jova a Category 3 Hurricane. Jova is another small storm, like last month’s Hurricane Hilary. Hurricane force winds extend out 15 miles, tropical storm force winds extend out as much as 80 miles and 12ft seas extend out as much as 300 miles.

Hurricane Jova is forecast to continually move over warmer waters as it approaches the mainland will thusly continue to strengthen right up until the time of landfall. Current forecasts call for a Category 3 landfall somewhere near Barra de Navidad on the Mexican mainland sometime Tuesday evening.

The Pacific coast of Mexico has so far this season been spared landfall of a hurricane. Jova stands to make amends for that oversight and will plow into the southwest coast of Mexico sometime Tuesday night. Should Jova make landfall as a Major Hurricane wide spread destruction can be anticipated along the coast from storm surge to 15′. Wide spread flooding and extensive wind damage will occur. In short, this will be a major natural disaster. Orders to evacuate should be observed.

Jova will be the 5th Major Hurricane of 2011. Normally the Eastern Pacific spawns 3.2 Major Hurricanes per year.

September 25th, 2011

Hurricane Hilary Category 4 Off Of Baja

Hurricane Hilary

Sunday, September 25, 2011 11:31 AM MDT Hurricane Hilary Appears to have passed its peak overnight and continues to weaken slowly, but remains a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane. Hurricane Hilary is currently about 400 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricane Hilary is currently near 17.2N 109.2W and is moving 275° at 08kts. Central barometric pressure is 953Mb and winds are 110kts to 135kts, making Hurricane Hilary a Category 3 Hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out only 30 miles and Tropical Storm force winds extend out 60 miles in the NE quadrant. Twelve foot seas extend out as much as 150 miles. Hilary is a strong but relatively small system.

Hurricane Hilary will begin to move over increasingly cooler waters through the day today but is forecast to remain a dangerous Major Hurricane through Tuesday. On Wednesday Hilary is forecast to depreciate to a Category 2 Hurricane and begin a turn to the north. By late Tuesday or early Wednesday Hilary will cross the 26°C thermo cline and begin to dissipate rapidly.

In the 10 day forecast it appears that Hilary will dissipate to the west of the Baja peninsula through late next week and as the storm breaks up the remains may provide some rain and cloud cover to the central and northern portions of the peninsula.

Hillary will provide large short period surf to south and southwest facing beaches as it passes south of Cabo beginning late Saturday. Waves will create dangerous swimming conditions and because of the short period, not be much of a gift to surfers.

Hurricane Hilary is a powerful but small storm. Passing nearly 400 miles south of the tip of the peninsula it is likely surf will be the only evidence of Hilary in Baja Sur. Some clouds and the increased chance of afternoon thunderstorms may occur due to the humidity that Hilary will drag along with her. But with tropical storm force winds (>35kts) only extending out 60 miles even the Socorro Islands (The most hurricane struck land mass on earth) may not suffer badly from the passing of Hilary.

The air mass over the southern peninsula remains relatively dry, along with winds and overnight lows our Baja weather still does not appear ripe for a tropical cyclone landfall. Here in La Paz we have not even had a local thunderstorm in weeks.

Hurricane Hilary is going to redistribute a great deal of energy from the Eastern Pacific. With just one tropical wave in the pipeline of the ITCZ about 7 days away from our basin and about 15 – 20 days left in our hurricane season this could mean the Baja will escape 2011 without a credible hurricane threat.

Below is an animated graphic showing the evolution of the computer generated storm tracks.

We always advise against looking at individual models, as the consensus model issued by the NHC and adapted for the Insider ( top right) is constructed with human judgment, knowing the strengths and weaknesses of each forecast model.

The below computer models are an excellent example of why NOT to look at individual models. Compare the accuracy of the consensus track model upper right with the wild wanderings of the individual models shown below.

September 4th, 2011

Hurricane Katia Now A Category 2 – Wave Forecast Quiksilver Pro

Hurricane Katia
Katia has regained hurricane status once again and is now a category 2. As of Sunday, Hurricane Katia was located to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles and was moving off to the northwest.

Katia has been battling wind shear over the last couple of days and has been flipping between minimal hurricane and strong tropical storm strength. The long-term forecast calls for continued strengthening. It is still too early to determine if any land areas, including the U.S. East Coast, will be directly affected by this system.

Much of the uncertainty in the track forecast is associated with an upper-level trough, partially associated with Lee, over the eastern states later in the week. The exact orientation and position of this trough will play a role in the steering for Katia.

Residents along the East Coast should monitor this situation closely.

SWELL/SURF: 2-3’+ SSW windswell and SE Katia swell. Potential for bigger SE swell sets in the chest+ range to show during the second half of the day as a little more swell fills in.
WIND/WEATHER: S/SSW 8-13kts increasing to 12-16kts as a frontal boundary approaches. Chance of rain/thunderstorms.

SWELL/SURF: Stronger 3-4’+ (waist-chest/shoulder high) SE Katia swell and fading SSW windswell mix.
WIND/WEATHER: Depending on exact position of frontal boundary – S 10-15kts ahead of front; N/NNW winds around 8-13kts behind the front. This will depend on interaction between TS Lee and the frontal boundary – we will watch closely the next couple of days.

SWELL/SURF: 5-7′ (head high – overhead) SE Katia swell. There is potential for a bit more size towards the later PM hours as Katia swell continues to fill in further. This will be dependent on the progress of Katia over the next few days.
WIND/WEATHER: Possible increase in side/offshore ENE winds. Wind strength dependent on possible interaction between lingering front and approaching Katia. Lingering cloudiness from the old frontal boundary.

SWELL/SURF: 6-8’+ (overhead-few feet overhead) SE Katia swell. Possible sets pushing the double overhead range. This will be dependent on the track/strength of Katia over the next few days.
WIND/WEATHER: Gusty E possibly becoming ENE winds. Wind outlook low confidence and dependent upon interaction between lingering front and approaching Katia.