Posts Tagged ‘category 4’

October 5th, 2014

Simon Now A Category 4 Hurricane

Hurricane Simon has reached to a category 4

September 14th, 2014

Odile Now A Major Category 4 Hurricane

Hurricane Odile is expected to be near its peak intensity this evening when it is closest to Cabo San Lucas with winds 120-145hts, close to Category 5 intensity.


October 10th, 2011

Hurricane Jova To Become Category 4 Off Of Baja Mexico

Monday, October 10, 2011 8:05 AM MDT Category 3 Major Hurricane Jova continues to strengthen and is forecast possibly even become a Category 4 Hurricane before making landfall late Tuesday on the southwest coast of mainland Mexico. Hurricane Jova is currently about 255 miles SW of Manzanillo, or about 500 miles SSE of Cabo San Lucas.

Other than heavy surf along south facing beaches Jova is not likely to significantly affect Baja weather at this time.

Hurricane Jova is currently located near 16.3N 107.0W and is moving 85° at 4kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 960Mb and winds are 105kts with gusts to 130kts, making Jova a Category 3 Hurricane. Jova is another small storm, like last month’s Hurricane Hilary. Hurricane force winds extend out 15 miles, tropical storm force winds extend out as much as 80 miles and 12ft seas extend out as much as 300 miles.

Hurricane Jova is forecast to continually move over warmer waters as it approaches the mainland will thusly continue to strengthen right up until the time of landfall. Current forecasts call for a Category 3 landfall somewhere near Barra de Navidad on the Mexican mainland sometime Tuesday evening.

The Pacific coast of Mexico has so far this season been spared landfall of a hurricane. Jova stands to make amends for that oversight and will plow into the southwest coast of Mexico sometime Tuesday night. Should Jova make landfall as a Major Hurricane wide spread destruction can be anticipated along the coast from storm surge to 15′. Wide spread flooding and extensive wind damage will occur. In short, this will be a major natural disaster. Orders to evacuate should be observed.

Jova will be the 5th Major Hurricane of 2011. Normally the Eastern Pacific spawns 3.2 Major Hurricanes per year.

September 25th, 2011

Hurricane Hilary Category 4 Off Of Baja

Hurricane Hilary

Sunday, September 25, 2011 11:31 AM MDT Hurricane Hilary Appears to have passed its peak overnight and continues to weaken slowly, but remains a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane. Hurricane Hilary is currently about 400 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas.

Hurricane Hilary is currently near 17.2N 109.2W and is moving 275° at 08kts. Central barometric pressure is 953Mb and winds are 110kts to 135kts, making Hurricane Hilary a Category 3 Hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out only 30 miles and Tropical Storm force winds extend out 60 miles in the NE quadrant. Twelve foot seas extend out as much as 150 miles. Hilary is a strong but relatively small system.

Hurricane Hilary will begin to move over increasingly cooler waters through the day today but is forecast to remain a dangerous Major Hurricane through Tuesday. On Wednesday Hilary is forecast to depreciate to a Category 2 Hurricane and begin a turn to the north. By late Tuesday or early Wednesday Hilary will cross the 26°C thermo cline and begin to dissipate rapidly.

In the 10 day forecast it appears that Hilary will dissipate to the west of the Baja peninsula through late next week and as the storm breaks up the remains may provide some rain and cloud cover to the central and northern portions of the peninsula.

Hillary will provide large short period surf to south and southwest facing beaches as it passes south of Cabo beginning late Saturday. Waves will create dangerous swimming conditions and because of the short period, not be much of a gift to surfers.

Hurricane Hilary is a powerful but small storm. Passing nearly 400 miles south of the tip of the peninsula it is likely surf will be the only evidence of Hilary in Baja Sur. Some clouds and the increased chance of afternoon thunderstorms may occur due to the humidity that Hilary will drag along with her. But with tropical storm force winds (>35kts) only extending out 60 miles even the Socorro Islands (The most hurricane struck land mass on earth) may not suffer badly from the passing of Hilary.

The air mass over the southern peninsula remains relatively dry, along with winds and overnight lows our Baja weather still does not appear ripe for a tropical cyclone landfall. Here in La Paz we have not even had a local thunderstorm in weeks.

Hurricane Hilary is going to redistribute a great deal of energy from the Eastern Pacific. With just one tropical wave in the pipeline of the ITCZ about 7 days away from our basin and about 15 – 20 days left in our hurricane season this could mean the Baja will escape 2011 without a credible hurricane threat.

Below is an animated graphic showing the evolution of the computer generated storm tracks.

We always advise against looking at individual models, as the consensus model issued by the NHC and adapted for the Insider ( top right) is constructed with human judgment, knowing the strengths and weaknesses of each forecast model.

The below computer models are an excellent example of why NOT to look at individual models. Compare the accuracy of the consensus track model upper right with the wild wanderings of the individual models shown below.